My Student loans were sold before I even finished school.
Don’t even ask the question.
The answer is yes, it’s priced in.
Think Amazon will beat the next earnings? That’s already been priced in.
You work at the drive thru for Mickey D’s and found out that the burgers are made of human meat? Priced in. You think insiders don’t already know that?
The market is an all powerful, all encompassing being that knows the very inner workings of your subconscious before you were even born.
Your very existence was priced in decades ago when the market was valuing Standard Oil’s expected future earnings based on population growth that would lead to your birth, what age you would get a car, how many times you would drive your car every week, how many times you take the bus/train, etc.
Anything you can think of has already been priced in, even the things you aren’t thinking of.
You have no original thoughts. Your consciousness is just an illusion, a product of the omniscent market. Free will is a myth.
The market sees all, knows all and will be there from the beginning of time until the end of the universe (the market has already priced in the heat death of the universe).
So please, before you make a post on Reddit asking whether AAPL has priced in earpods 11 sales or whatever, know that it has already been priced in and don’t ask such a dumb fucking question again
doesn’t pay it back
2008 financial crisis
when your puny change in mortgage loan causes upwards of a billion dollars worth of
investmentsgambling to fall apartThe derivatives market is out of control. The global annual GDP, actual goods and services produced, is something like $100 trillion. The derivatives market is something like 7 times that.
About 80% of the global economy is just gambling on what the other 20% will do.
Gambles on failure of stocks shouldn’t be allowed, regulate wall street WS. They will make off like bandits when the tariffs hit.
The derivatives market is something like 7 times that.
The notional value is that size, but that’s not really representative. You can’t compare or even add notional amounts.
For example, temperature derivatives would have a notional value measured in millions of °C.
A left-leaning friend of mine who was big into economics and business (as it was, well, his business) once described our current financial system as having organically and piecemeal emerged bit by bit into a rat’s nest of tangled protocols. And that now it’s ended up as a Gordian knot strangling us to death, but that cutting will kill us.
The whole history of compound interest is quite fascinating. Early arguments for it are that seeds and livestock are capable of reproducing and multiplying themselves. If I lend you a handful of seeds and a year later you give back the exact same size handful, I have lost a whole year’s production I could have gotten out of those seeds.
Furthermore, assuming you actually planted the seeds instead of tucking them away in a drawer somewhere before giving them back later, those seeds produced a crop for you. This crop you could harvest and sell or feed yourself or your family or livestock. You could even save seeds from the harvest and pay me back the handful while keeping even more seeds for yourself. So by lending you seeds interest-free I’m essentially giving you a gift of harvest potential as well even more seeds in the future, at my own expense. Thus is the time value of money.
From this initial seed of an idea grows a huge amount of the financial system.
Yeah, very organic and reasonable growth into a gigantic and incomprehensible beast. Fascinating, but, kind of wish I didn’t have to live through it.
Was there a time in the past you would have preferred? I grew up in the 90s and I really miss that time period but I don’t think I’d prefer to live at any time before the 20th century over now. As complex and difficult as life is right now, other time periods tended to be much nastier for various reasons.
I could skip a good 200 years into the future when hopefully things have already fallen apart and been put back together.
I admire your optimism! I could easily see us living in a Mad Max situation in 200 years.
One thing I never see people talking about with fossil fuels is that they were a one shot deal in earth’s history, never to be repeated. If global civilization completely collapses (particularly the industrial base) then attempting to start over without fossil fuels could leave us stuck in a 17th century type situation for an extremely long time.
The problem is that renewables just don’t bootstrap. They require huge amounts of minerals which we’ve only been able to mine and process using heavy equipment and manufacturing powered by fossil fuels. Trying to do all that from a minecart-horse-and-pickaxe level of technology isn’t going to work out.
The other major factor is of course all the really easy mineral sources are gone too. Instead of mining directly from the ground we’d be salvaging scrap materials from the mountains of disposable electronics we’re producing right now. That’s where things really start to look like Mad Max.
While funny, and this is a the meme community, God it’s so much worse than that. Debt accumulated in a western style capitalist society is just how money exchanges hands. Your debt, the one that deeply affects your life, that can ruin your ability to make basic purchases and health care is a simple gamble for the rich, OUR debts.
Their debts are waved away, all because it makes more profits to forgive major mistakes when the other people are rich. I’m looking at you GM and Chrysler, I’ll never forget.
Edit: I forgot.
Wasn’t Ford the American auto company who didn’t have to be bailed out by taxpayers while GM and Chysler did?
Maybe. Listen, what I said was in the moment. You can’t blame me for being stupid on the internet lol.
