Despite all the doom scrolling, Harris has a comfortable lead in the electoral college right now.
The time for vibing is over. It’s too late to change anyone’s opinions (especially because national level events like debates are over). Harris will finish her Media Blitz soon (including a Fox News showing) while Trump retreats into his shell hoping no one notices how damn stupid his mouth is.
This is the time for doing. The focus should be on voter drives and other get out the vote pushes. It’s mid October, and the October surprises are against Trump and in our favor.
It’s not the lead we wanted but it’s a lead nonetheless. Don’t talk yourself out of believing this lead because of a bad poll or two.
She will only win if you vote. Do not say “she’s got this, I’ll skip it.” Do not say “I can’t bring myself to vote for her.” Do not say “something something genocide.” Vote. For. Her.
Because if you don’t, he will win. And you’ll still get the genocide, plus so much other even worse shit.
She doesn’t “got this.” The election is too close for logic or comfort.
I can’t vote anymore… I already did!
“playing by the rules? That’s why dems lose!!!”- some ass.
I’m registered and raring to go. I even have the day off, so I’m going. (I’ve voted in every single election)
Don’t vote? Then you don’t get to complain or criticize.
(I’ve voted in every single election)
How old are you??
About 300 years old it seems
Lol my b, in my 30s, so the last 3
You know what they say, “Vote early. Vote often.”
But like, actually do. Because there are a shitload of elections and state + local really matters too.
Early voting starts next week for me… I guess my state is just later than all of yalls…
Well I vote by mail and live abroad - my ballot needed time to get to me and then get back to my city clerk.
Take action today! If nothing else it will help with anxiety
Make sure to register to vote. Deadlines are fast approaching in many states
Find opportunities to volunteer for dems around you and online
Write letters to voters in swing states or in competitive downballot races
Harris has a comfortable lead in the electoral college right now.
As much as I want to buy into this optimism, I’m having trouble equating Harris’s marginal lead in the average national polls with a comfortable electoral college lead.
When battleground state polling is within the margin for error for states she needs to win and the no toss-ups map looks like this, you really need to have an abundance of faith in professional poll aggregators’ judgement and weightings to feel comfortable.
From the data table at the bottom of this Nate Silver article (below the sports betting), he suggests Harris needs to win the popular vote by a +2 to +3 margin in order to have a greater than 50% probability of winning the electoral college. The latest polling from the Silver Bulletin has her at +2.9, just enough to give her “a slight advantage, but with emphasis on slight.”
Nothing about this makes me feel comfortable.
Yeah and Nate Silver was calling a landslide Clinton victory, too. It’s just another talking head.
I was following that. Nate was saying 71.4% chance for Clinton (just checked again) when basically all of the rest of the media was treating it like 99%. Effectively he was the one suggesting she might actually lose. (Even if it still didn’t seem likely)
Just two days out he even had her probability of winning at just 64.2%, still better odds than what we’re seeing for Harris right now. And you’re right, he was the only reputable poll aggregator who was making downward adjustments of that magnitude, that late in the race.
As much as I want to buy into this optimism, I’m having trouble equating Harris’s marginal lead in the average national polls with a comfortable electoral college lead.
Trump can win Nevada, North Carolina, Georgia, AND Arizona but Harris would still win if she gets Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.
That’s a comfortable lead no matter how you spin it. Its a lead, but within the margin of error. So there’s work to do, in particular we must now step to the polls and vote. Close this out.
National polls don’t matter. Ignore them. Focus on the electoral college maps and the specific states.
That’s a comfortable lead no matter how you spin it.
My brother in anti-Trumpism, the only spin here is yours in saying her lead is comfortable.
Your original OpEd focused on national polling, so that’s what I responded to. But yes, ignore the national polling, focus on the swing states, the electoral college is what counts.
From the same WaPo article as your picture is this swing state focused chart:
It shows the 2020 polling error, which was largely in Trump’s favor in swing states (other than GA). If the same polling error still exists now in 2024, all that comfort disappears. The polling error was even greater in Trump’s favor in 2016, however was in Obama’s favor in 2012.
The point not being that Trump will outperform the polls this time, but that margins of error matter, and the reality could swing either way. With polling in so many states being within the margins, we’re likely seeing the closest election of our lifetimes.
And all this isn’t meant to be doom and gloom, but I ain’t going into this election with Clinton levels of comfort, again. You’re absolutely right on the game plan though. If you live in any of these states, your vote this time will likely be more consequential than it ever will be.
Harris doesn’t have a comfortable lead in the EC, what are you talking about? Even your own posted article says she’s within the margin of error nationally, and the race is closer in the swing states than in the national polls. That’s by definition not a “comfortable lead.”
Biden won with 4.5% more of the national vote. Harris currently is polling at about half that. In the EC, Biden won by only 78,000 votes despite his large +4.5% popular vote lead.
Two different polls in the last two days have flipped two swing states over to Trump. Nate Silver’s polling aggregator reflect the many, many polls that have shown Trump gaining in multiple swing states. Silver’s projections reflect this by indicating a six point drop for Harris to win the EC since the end of September.
Optimism is fine, hopium is not. No high quality polling shows Harris with a “comfortable lead” in the electoral college.
These “don’t worry be happy” posts seem like they’re coming straight from the Trump campaign. Harris has a comfortable lead, I guess I don’t have to worry! Even if you say “but you have to vote,” the psychological effect of denying the state of the race with hopium like this is to make people feel less concerned and more complacent about voting.
Biden won by only 78,000 votes despite his large +4.5% popular vote lead.
The magic of the Electoral College. 2024 is expected to get even worse, as states like California and Texas lean harder left than at any point in recent history, but California can’t yield any more EC votes than it already does and Texas Dems will still be a point or two shy of winning the state under the most Dem-leaning models.
Swing states are all that matter. And once they’ve swung far enough (as in the case of Virginia and Colorado and Florida) they stop mattering again.
Optimism is fine, hopium is not.
Be an optimist. Be a pessimist. It doesn’t matter. The folks with the biggest thumbs on the scales are mega-donors, media magnets, and the majorities on various state and federal courts. At some point, you have to realize that your vote matters far less than there’s. It’s a rich man’s country, we just live in it.
I agree with your general view that it’s not actually time to relax.
But I will point out that you can’t just assume the electoral college advantage stays the same from election to election.
Biden won with 4.5% more of the national vote. Harris currently is polling at about half that. In the EC, Biden won by only 78,000 votes despite his large +4.5% popular vote lead.
In 2020, Biden won by 4.5% in the popular vote, but he won the tipping point state of Wisconsin by 0.6%. In other words, the electoral college was worth roughly a R+3.8% advantage in 2020 (yes, 4.5% minus 0.6% is 3.9% but when you use unrounded numbers it’s closer to 3.8%).
Is 2024 going to be the same? Probably not. The New York Times ran an article about this last month, and the tipping point state in the polling was Wisconsin, where Harris was polling at +1.8%, only 0.7% lower than the national average at the time of 2.6%. The article noted that national polling has Trump shrinking Harris’s lead in non-competitive blue states like California and New York, or expanding his lead in places like the deep south, while not gaining in actual swing states compared to 2020.
Note, however, that as of today, Harris’s lead in Wisconsin has shrunk to just under 1%, so we are seeing a shift towards Trump in the actual electoral college.
Right now, Harris is showing a lead in the national polling averages, by aggregator:
- 538: Harris up by 2.4%
- NYT: Harris up by 3%
- 270towin: Harris up 2.5%
- Nate Silver: Harris up 2.9%
It’s a close race, according to the polls. But whether the polls are actually accurate remains a huge unknown. So everyone should vote, and those with the means should volunteer.
I generally agree with you here, and I think we’re expressing a similar point. And the general sentiment that the electoral landscape can shift from one election to another is true, but I think it’s worth underscoring that the changes you’re discussing haven’t yet led to a significant break in the tightness of the 2024 race. The fact that Harris’s lead in Wisconsin has shrunk from 1.8% to just under 1% recently is exactly the point. This shows momentum shifting toward Trump, not to mention the same trend in other swing states.
You’re correct that the Electoral College advantage may change slightly in 2024, but as of now, the fundamentals we’re looking at are pointing toward a very close contest in the key battleground states. It’s not just the national polling averages that matter here—it’s the state-level dynamics that determine the outcome, and recent polls show the swing states tightening, which is why it’s reckless to assume Harris is in a secure position. Even Nate Silver’s model, which tends to account for some unpredictability, has downgraded Harris’s chances since the end of September.
National polling averages like the ones you cited (538, NYT, etc.) paint a picture of a close race, and while they show a lead for Harris, the recent shifts we’re seeing in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Georgia, among others, indicate that Trump is gaining ground. The fact that Harris’s national lead is shrinking in traditionally blue states like New York and California actually emphasizes her vulnerabilities in the swing states, where the race is most critical.
Bottom line: There’s no data right now that suggests a significant shift in the electoral college advantage for 2024. In fact, if anything, Trump’s recent gains are pushing the tipping point states even closer. With polls this tight and the Electoral College looking like a replay of 2020’s knife-edge margins, it’s exactly the wrong time to get complacent. Everyone should be treating this as an all-hands-on-deck situation.
Bottom line: There’s no data right now that suggests a significant shift in the electoral college advantage for 2024.
There’s a ton of uncertainty in the data now.
2016 and 2020 polls missed Trump popularity, and about 2/3 of pollsters have decided to use recall vote weighting (that is, making sure that their sample is representative of the vote ratios in the actual 2020 results). Historically, that method has overstated the previous losing party’s support (people are more likely to remember voting for the winner, so reweighing the results the other way ends up favoring the loser), but 2 presidential elections in a row have caused some pollsters to try to make up for past mistakes. Then again, does Trump himself being on the ballot change things?
Throw in the significant migration patterns of the pandemic era where many voters might not be voting in the same state that they were in 2020, and increasing difficulty at actually getting statistically representative poll respondents through spam filters, and there are real concerns about poll quality this year, perhaps more than previous years. Plus ballot access being uneven also might translate to actual voting biases that aren’t captured in the polling methods, either.
I just wouldn’t trust the polls to be accurate. Volunteer and vote.
Yeah. Looks like we read similar things.
My gut tells me Trump is going to win. I don’t think voter suppression, shenanigans, and armed militia members patrolling polling sites can be factored into polling predictions, and with razor-thin margins, that in aggregate might make the difference. Combined with the mild Trump surge… but that’s all feels not reals. And, of course, I hope I’m wrong.
agreed. Trumpers always underreport their support because they know its shameful and dont want to admit it. So the poll numbers are almost certainly worse for Harris than they appear. Harris (and Biden shares the blame) are on track to lose the election and destroy this country and its because she refuses to reverse herself on genocide support. She is doing this to herself.
Gaza consistently polls as one of the least important issues for voters. Among voters 18-29 of 16 issues presented in the Harvard IOP polls of that age group, it consistently comes in last or second to last in ratings of importance.
Seems pretty unrealistic to expect politicians to reverse their positions about things very few people care much about.
Neck and neck race. Shes currently sucking up to the NRA gun nuts trying to scrape the bottom of the barrel there. She clearly is scrambling for every possible voter she can without abandoning those sweet sweet AIPAC bribes. I guess we’ll see if you were right on Nov 3rd, and she just didnt flatly need those votes. But there are votes to be had there.
Very, very few. She’s likely to pick up more votes by going on Rogan than reversing herself on support of Israel. If she’s going to do that, it’s likely to occur after, not before, the election.
It’s not comfortable until she hits 270…
That’s a tad old for a president
I wouldn’t count that comfortable in this election. Get her to 200 and the election deniers will have less fuel.
Harris has a comfortable lead in the electoral college right now.
2016 DNC Campaign literally moments before disaster.
I just came from the utterly brain dead “Harris cares about Gaza” meme post , so I can safely start labeling posts like these as hopium and accepting the status quo.
People really out here thinking the money from the biggest PAC is gonna both allow the dems to win and somehow convince them to actually pass significant legislation to improve literally anything for the middle class beyond token handouts and continuing to repair what Trump destroyed in like only 3 months of hime being in office.
Dunno how Republican turnout is gonna be, but Democrats are about to get a kick in the nuts from all the constituents they willingly chose to ignore. Might still win, but thinking it’s going to be easy is a false hope.
I’ve been canvassing twice so far. The second time I wasn’t able to talk to anyone, but hopefully I will next time.
Nice, keep up the canavassing!
One thing I was told is that ringing the doorbell a second time after waiting a bit can increase the response rate. I haven’t tried it myself but was told by a couple of people that it helped a good amount
It can also just varies a lot day to day and location to location on the response rate. Some days more people answer the door, others day it seems emptier
I’ll try that thanks!
Hey, me too! This election is giving me too much anxiety to just sit around doing nothing. I live close to a swing state and spent last weekend canvassing there. At this stage in the campaign, the “convincing people” part is over - the focus is now on “get out the vote.” It was encouraging to talk to level-headed people who’d made plans to vote or who’d already dropped off their mail-in ballots.
Still, we can’t afford complacency. If anyone else feels the restless need to do something, but you don’t live in/near a swing state, you can volunteer for phone banking.
That election anxiety is there for a reason - let it empower you to leave your comfort zone for a few hours and make a difference where it counts.
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I’m getting really close to being hopeful that I’m going to be in a swing state. 538 has slowly been showing it in lighter shades of red as we get closer. And the Senate race is polling closer than the last challenger who lost by <3%. If people turn up and vote, there’s a very good chance of excitement
Thanks for reminding me to vote today!
It’s too late to change anyone’s opinions
James Comey has entered the chat
https://www.instagram.com/p/DBCzHeiNSVH/
The James Comey-esque “October Surprises” are coming in on the other side, in support of Kamala.
Trump seems to have completely lost it this past week. Maybe Trump’s mental abilities recover in a few days, but we already got the clips we need to damage his campaign further.
If you can vote early, vote as early as possible. Part of the Democratic mission is to turn out the vote, and if you vote the earliest, we can focus on those who have not yet voted.
Waiting for my ballot to arrive.
We got our ballots here in Colorado area. I plan on researching the ballot measures and filling it out on my leisure, then dropping it off.
God, I love this state! When some dipshit like dementia donnie trashes this great state of ours, it sure does anger me. Every state should have this option for voting, as a for instance.
Get out there and vote, people (or fill out your ballot and mail/drop it off if you have the option)! Like your life depends on it.
I can’t vote today
Note though that a number of states have already started both mail and in person early voting. You are likely able to vote sooner than you may think
https://www.vote.org/early-voting-calendar/
I’d also encourage voting early. It can save you from any issues popping up like getting sick on election day. Campaigns will stop bugging you as much once they see that you have voted (though they obviously cannot see who you voted for)
Though I think early voting is a good thing to take advantage of be aware of your voting board if you’re in a swing state. Georgia is making some pretty overt moves that they may try and disqualify mail in votes and call the count early. It’s sad that we need to consider this but Trump has already used the “we were winning until they found mail in votes” line of attack and true believers in that bullshit have taken over Georgia’s election board.
Early in person voting is also an option. Also it varies state to state when mail ballots are counted. Michigan for instance, is actually going to start counting some of them a bit before the election day as they arrive. (Michigan now has a democratic trifecta in local government)
This is why I (a Georgian) am doing early in-person voting and not mail-in voting. Between the tactic you mentioned, the possibility of disqualification due to a bullshit “signature mismatch,” and sabotage from DeJoy (who is still the fucking Postmaster General because Biden apparently hates the USPS as much as he does and failed to make board appointees who would remove him), mail-in voting is unacceptably risky unless you have no other choice. And that’s sad, terrifying, and – most importantly – fucking infuriating.
