Florida’s voter registration deadline is on the earlier side in a few days on Monday. Make sure to register to vote! https://vote.gov/register
I will not believe it until it happens. Just like Texas. But if she does win, I am willing to bet it comes along with additional house seats.
in 2020 republicans went hard after the cuban vote. wonder how that’a going this time.
I live in Miami and i hate to report that it’s going swimmingly well for the GOP. There’s a culture down here that anything even looking like it might be confused with a leftist policy is immediately labeled COMMUNIST and hated with incessant fervor. No one dares be seen as a Castro-fellating leftist scumbag so they’re constantly virtue signaling how republican they are. Same with anything the Catholic church doesn’t like as there are lots of Catholics here and they vote as they’re told. The result is you’re as likely to see a Trump sign in a million dollar yard as a broke-ass apartment complex. Spanish-language talk radio here is so far to the right it wants to harvest the poor for their organs and bone marrow.
If Florida goes for Harris I will be legitimately amazed. Thrilled, no doubt, but amazed.
You can virtue signal about being a Republican as much as you want and still vote Democrat. Nobody knows which box you actually checked. I don’t know how common it is but I’m 100% sure it happens. Politics and religion are social clubs for a lot of people.
I’m sure it happens, but it definitely seems like wishful thinking to think it happens often.
Top Republicans are endorsing Kamala Harris. The riffraff and out of touch MAGA Republicans still haven’t got the message despite Dick Cheney endorsing Harris. Most mainstream Republicans don’t have signs in their yards around my area this election cycle and will march to the polls, vote for Kamala Harris and won’t tell anyone how they voted - it’s a Republican thing.
I mean Florida happened in 2012. Texas I think was 1976. So I’m with you, just I’m feeling FL is a little more reasonable.
Ohio was 2012 too. It feels like such a different world.
Pretty big deal if it holds up another week or two.
Note however, that NS does not have them as being this close:
*Checking the other results in FL, this is a bit of a fever dream. Only engage with it if you haven’t had some time for self-care this morning.
Keep in mind that ~R+3 is itself close and withing the margin of error of a lot of polls. Many of the swing states have had near D+3 margins in the average at one point
A bigger issue than MOE is structural bias.
Here is FL 2020:
Dem’s face a self-imposed structural disadvantage in both inter and intrastate models.
R+3 in FL should be read more accurately as R+6 or R+7 based on the best most recent structural bias measurement we have. The article is weekend whacking material.
That’s assuming the polling error goes the same way. That’s not a given at all especially as many pollsters have made methodology changes such as some doing much heavier rural sampling
Polling error has gone both directions in the past. Dems were underestimated by polls in 2012 for instance
You should base it on the data we have. The data we have says the polling bias for FL leans +3-4 for Republicans.
You dont get to just “wish” it were some other way and base expectations around that.
Polling error has historically moved in inconsistent direction. Data goes back further than 2020. In 2012, Democrats were underestimated in florida by ~2 points. Romney was up 1.5% in Florida poll average vs Obama winning Florida by 0.9%
Assuming it certain to go that way is not a given either. My point is that you cannot be certain about it
My point is that you cannot be certain about it
Yeah and thats not really a point. Everything has uncertainty. We have to and do make judgements in the face of uncertainty of reality all the time.
If you choose to live in a fact based reality rather, this is the thing we have.
That’s not how your earlier comments are phrased. The earlier comments declare that this is a given structural bias and that it will always exist. How is entirely ignoring the 2012 election any more real than saying we can’t be sure?
I know I’m one “not team fascist” vote in Florida that wasn’t there for the last election. So there’s that.
Here are the actual poll results which the article helpfully does not link to.
Napolitan News surveys ask an initial question to determine the voter preference for each candidate. Then, a follow-up question is asked of uncommitted voters to see which candidate they are leaning towards. The results are then reported “with leaners.”
On the initial ask– the number without leaners– it was Trump 50%, Harris 47%.
This Napolitan News Service survey of 774 Likely Voters was conducted online by Scott Rasmussen on September 25-27, 2024. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. and has a margin of error of +/- 3.5.
I think articles like this based on a single poll which appears to be an outlier are uninformative, but I guess they get clicks.
It’s not that much of an outlier. Nate Silver is tracking Trump’s lead in Florida across numerous polls at +3%. With leaners, this poll found +2%. Off the average by one point with a 3.5% margin of error. Which is to say, well in line with other results.
The article is sensationalistic and likely wrong in portraying that as a toss-up or close to tied. Trump won Florida in 2020 by +3%. A result that suggests he has a similar lead suggests that he’ll win by about as much as he did in 2020.
Silver has seven recent polls that inform the Florida average. Not a single one shows Harris ahead. Trump has also outperformed his polling in both of the last two contests, so his actual lead in Florida may be greater than the polling average suggests, but there is nothing to suggest Harris is ahead or likely to pull ahead.
Trump is likely to win Florida. The race still hinges primarily on Pennsylvania. Harris is not gaining ground. The race is locked in essentially a dead heat, with a tiny edge for Harris if you believe the polls and a tiny edge for Trump if you believe he’ll again outperform the polls.
I detest these articles and the conspiratorial side of me thinks they’re planted by the right to encourage complacency among Democratic voters. This election is as close as they come and requires everyone to show up and vote.
Trump won Florida in 2020 by +3%
Trump won Florida by 3% where the polling suggested he was trailing by 3%, to just sharpen that point a bit.
Yeah, people are delusional if they think Florida, which overwhelmingly voted for DeSantis, has any chance of going to Harris.
Nate Silver
He predicted a Hillary win in 2016. Go with the guy who gets it right, professor Allan Lichtman. He actually correctly predicted a Gore win in 2000 but the vote count was stopped by the Brooks Brothers riot and subsequently awarded to Bush by the right wing Extreme Court.
I’m not defending modern Nate Silver as a person — he seems to have become a bit of a gambling addict — but in 2016, 538’s model had Trump’s chances at like 33% and the competing models had his chances at 1-2%. It wasn’t a bad model so much as a “when polls are off, they tend to be off in the same direction” situation. The 2016 538 model at least took that into account.
I think she’s got a fair chance of winning FLA, but if she does, it means she’s already won most of the swing states, so there’s not much point in investing the massive amount of cash it would take to win. But, like Iowa and Alaska, the fact that it’s this close is a very encouraging sign.
Winning FL would flip the entire table over. She’s not remotely close to winning FL right now. The polls in the article disagree wildly from all of the other polls we have on the matter. Biden was 4 points ahead in FL in 2020. Trump won by 4 points in FL. Harris is behind in most polls by 3.
She’s improved her postilion in FL. She’s not remotely close to winning it. When the polls come in at +6-7 for Harris in FL, that is when she is now “break even”.
Biden was 4 points ahead in FL in 2020
? In this very comment section you were mentioning polling average earlier that showed it as ~2.5%
Assuming the error is the same direction as 2020 is not a given. Pollsters have made changes to their model that intentionally put more weight on areas likely to have trump supporters. Amid other changes
Not saying she will necessarily win florida, but assuming the worst case all the time is not always accurate either
You can go check the exact sources. I think Kamala is down in FL -2, -3? Depends on your source and poll aggregator. Biden was up ~+3 ~+4. Final result was -4? So call it a 6-7 point structural bias. Doesn’t diminish my point.
Not saying she will necessarily win florida, but assuming the worst case all the time is not always accurate either
Yeah thats just self delusion. You clearly have a specific confirmation bias your working to attend to. You shouldn’t delude yourself and others because reality is difficult and shitty. We only hurt yourself when we live in fantasy.
Look if you thought the polling bias in the previous election always determined the next one, you would’ve thought Hillary was in for a big landslide because dems were systematically underestimated in 2012 including in florida. Obviously it did not go the same way. It’s not limited to 2012 either
Pollster make adjustments every cycle. In this case, many have made some quite large ones. How much that effects the results isn’t fully knowable until only after the election happens
Dude you just very obviously do not know what the fuck you are talking about and want things to look better than they are. You should stop.
I get it. It sucks that the Harris campaign has flat lined and appears to be backsliding. But creating an alternative reality for your head to live in is not a healthy way to go through life. Or maybe it is, fuck I dont know that you aren’t better off living in a state of self delusion.
An alternative reality is saying that polling error is uncertain? I didn’t declare anything about it’s direction or even that it couldn’t be the same as it was earlier
This is something plenty of election modeling people say all the time
Over the long term, there is no meaningful partisan statistical bias in polling. All the polls in our data set combine for a weighted average statistical bias of 0.3 points toward Democrats. Individual election cycles can have more significant biases — and, importantly, it usually runs in the same direction for every office — but there is no pattern from year to year
The reason there’s no long-running polling bias is because pollsters try to correct for their mistakes. That means there’s always the risk of undercorrecting (which apparently happened this time) or overcorrecting (see the 2017 U.K. general election, where pollsters did all sorts of dodgy things in an effort to not underestimate Conservatives … and wound up underestimating the Labour Party instead)
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-polls-werent-great-but-thats-pretty-normal/
I’m just not interested in anything you have to say any longer with regards to statistics. Its obvious you don’t have a handle on this things and blog spamming 538 doesn’t change anything about you. However, I might be interested in that cocoon of warm self delusion you’ve created for yourself. Might be the last time we get to have the “happy chemicals” for a very long time.
Guys. Polls don’t predict the winner. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2012/oct/12/obama-poll-blow-romney-florida
That’s not how that works. It’s entirely possible she wins Florida and loses Michigan for example.
Not my first rodeo. The probability of her winning the blue wall is greater than winning Florida. She does that and she wins the Presidency. Her efforts must remain there. If they roll, there is a chance Florida will flip too.
That’s a fair way to put it.
It’s highly improbable though. If she flips Florida, a state she’s down in despite the headline, she most likely won Michigan by a wide margin.
It’s possible, but like pigs learning to fly possible.
Florida and Michigan are not connected at anything but the national level. They have completely different local and regional constituencies. You cannot compare states on opposite sides of the US like that.
Bullshit.
Hell they are in the same time zone, it’s just a straight shot down i75. What’s this opposite side of the country crap?
They are different, but a swing that big to the left in Florida is almost impossible without a national swing of serious size, thus Michigan which leans left already would be in the bag.
And California is a straight shot down the 40 from North Carolina. Surely you’re not suggesting they have the same culture and constituencies?
National swing is one way to do it. And it needs to be big because you’re activating a few people in every state. If you concentrate on a state you might hardly move the national needle but you could seriously swing the state.
Now add in other stake holders like the abortion rights movement and the fuck DeSantis movement and you’ve got ways the vote can change with the national candidate doing absolutely nothing. Of note both of those are going to do nothing in Michigan, while Michigan’s uncommitted movement isn’t going to bother Florida at all.
So no, not bullshit. I don’t know who told you the only possible way to change minds was at the national level but they were very wrong and now you’re very wrong.
Everybody talks about Florida man and forgets Florida woman.
She needs to focus primarily on blue wall and secondarily on sun belt. FL should be an afterthought, at best.
They are primarily focusing on the main swing states for president, but Florida does matter a good amount in terms of the senate though. It’s a rarer somewhat close pickup opportunity. With Montana not looking as great lately we’ll likely need to flip either Texas senate or Florida senate to keep the senate control. Or there’s the close race in Nebraska where Indepdent Osborn could give us a 49-49-1 senate if neither flip and we lose Montana
You’re on top of the Senate races. Good job!
How weird would it be for the Dems to lose Michigan and win Florida and Texas?
The poll in the article was in the field before the storm(s) but no Florida poll will be reliable for the foreseeable future. Half of the Tampa-St. Pete region is going to be evacuating this week should the Hurricane Milton develop according to forecasts. Parts of the state are dealing with Helene.
Voting isn’t even going to be predictable, much less polling. Committed voters will do anything to vote but a lot of people are detached from politics and are going to be busy with home repairs, insurance companies, or just not coming back.
If Harris wins FL then Trump should be reminded every single day that his pride and joy, Mar-a-Lago, resides in a blue state. Maybe it’ll make him sell & move to Arkansas…
Remember: to pass the abortion ammendment they need 60%. If it passes, no way Harris doesn’t get 50%.
I’d like to note that I’ve read a couple articles (economist and I think NPR) where they specifically ask people and they said they would vote to protect abortion but also vote trump. Yes, people are that dumb.
Two, last election I think it was they voted medical mj and higher minimum wage but still voted desantis. You shouldn’t get your hopes up honestly.
The former president leads the vice president by just two percentage points in the Sunshine State
Everything is in toss up territory this year. Right now AZ, NV, MI, WI, PA, GA, NC, and FL are in toss up territory. That’s the takeaway from all the models and polling right now.
Get out and vote.
Maybe hurricane Martin will remove numerous Republicans from the voter rolls. They are stupid enough to ignore storm warnings.
Republicans do tend to inhabit the northern sections of Florida more than the south.
deleted by creator
