Today is just the third day of early in person voting and it’s already at ~20% of the entire 2020 vote (both early and on election day)
Make sure to get out and vote!
1 million early is huge when you realize the 2020 numbers:
Biden - 2,473,633
Trump - 2,461,8541 million in just 3 days of early voting. And that’s including today which is still ongoing
I did mine
We made a serious error in judgement today… My wife volunteered to deliver 250 election flyers for the local Democratic party.
So I was like “Cool, I’ll drive and do security.”
We got about, I dunno, 15 houses in and she’s like “I can’t do this by myself!”
Fine, I didn’t volunteer, but I have an electric wheelchair, I’ll help.
2 apartment complexes later and we are WIPED.
I think maybe we hit 50 or 60 out of 250? We’re just destroyed. LOL.
Why does anybody wait for the final day?
I do because early voting is across town whereas I can walk up the street to vote on election day.
A lot of states require you to have “reasons” to vote early and apply for it, so all you can do is wait for election day.
I recently learned Alabama doesn’t have early voting.
cool, more votes usually benefits democrats, despite from the strict mathematics/statistics point of view, doesn’t make much sense
It makes sense because the people who always vote (retirees with few-to-no hobbies) are overwhelmingly republican.
Well, when you’ve got people like Trump saying that mail-in voting is fraud, there are going to be some percentage of republicans who take that seriously and won’t do a mail-in ballot and will vote in person on election day every time.
C’mon america,.dont be the guy who says ‘oh, a million already? I can sit this one out, then’ and then watch the orange turd get his second term and pardon himself with the help of his SC buddies.
Get. Out. And. Vote.
Are there any polls of these early votes? Is it tracking higher than 2020, which in itself was a very high amount of votes? I wonder if that is a good thing.
Tracking higher than 2020 numbers in many states. In Georgia, this year’s first day early voting turnout (~310k) was over double the 2020 first day early voting (~135k).
Keep in mind that COVID changed voting patterns in 2020 so comparisons can be funky. Even still 2020 had higher early voting turnout (especially by mail) than we had historically seen, so being on track for higher early turnout is great to see
Early voting has historically been heavy in dem’s favor and polling on voting prefering suggest that this has not changed all that much. There is a strong partisian divide in voting early vs election day
Exit polling data (asking people who they voted for) is not released until after polls close on election day
Are there mail vote numbers yet? Possibly those who voted by mail last time are just doing it in person now.
Do we have any idea which direction these votes are going? Are there early voting exit polls? Yes, I know recent trends point to blue early voting, but that’s no guarantee.
They don’t release exit polling until after polls close on election day
There is not direct data on who they are voting for, only demographic data. For instance, you can see that currently around 55% of early voters in Georgia are women. In some states you can also look at party registration but that doesn’t tell you everything (people often don’t update it) and a large chunk are not registered, but that can get you a good idea
Thank you, all great points. So overall, what do the demographics suggest in this case?
General consesus seems to be the early vote data looks good for dems overall. Some suggest that there maybe a slight increase in republicans switching from election day voting to early, but otherwise looks pretty good. Honestly would have expected more of that given that republicans theoretically made it a focus of their get out the vote to get people to vote earlier
Analyzing early voting data can be a little tricky because of you can only look at those indirect metrics. I mean even with party registration it doesn’t tell you if republicans are choosing not to vote for trump which the republican oversampling polling suggests we might see more of compared to 2020
The dems don’t have this in the bag, though. Wins and losses may be decided by a few thousand votes, so people need to get out and vote!
Of course! My early vote for Kamala in Arizona went out a couple weeks ago!
I really appreciate the indepth response. Thanks much.
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