These are all interesting polls and slightly more supportive of changing Israel policy than I would’ve expected, but they don’t really answer the key question: if Kamala came out and announced a key change to the relationship with Israel, like withholding military aid, would her numbers improve or get worse? The top poll doesn’t really answer it because the Biden administration clearly has been trying to make a ceasefire happen, without success. So 49% represents the current reality.
I’d also point out that in the second poll, 13% of Democratic voters support more weapons for Israel. If Kamala loses 13% of Democrats, or even a quarter of that number, this election is over.
The critical part of the first poll is the halt of arms sales to Israel, that is what gives the Democrats a +6 boost.
The third poll (which I think you meant) still shows that twice as many Democrats want to reduce weapons sent compared to those who do. Although, I’m not sure we can reasonably say those 13% of Democrats would no longer vote for Harris if she did change her policy on that. Would that also imply that those 28% of Republicans also switch to Harris? I don’t think that would be true either.
The second poll, which deals with swing states, shows that people are not deciding to not vote Democrat because of the current policy. To the extent that a change in policy would make ~35% of those swing state voters would be more likely to vote for the Dems compared to the ~5% that would be less likely.
The 4th poll shows a 5% increase from a chance in policy, similar to the first.
The 5th shows how Biden’s handling of the war, the calls of a ‘ceasefire’ that never materializes while the US continues to send more and more weapons, is one of his most unpopular positions.
These are all interesting polls and slightly more supportive of changing Israel policy than I would’ve expected, but they don’t really answer the key question: if Kamala came out and announced a key change to the relationship with Israel, like withholding military aid, would her numbers improve or get worse? The top poll doesn’t really answer it because the Biden administration clearly has been trying to make a ceasefire happen, without success. So 49% represents the current reality.
I’d also point out that in the second poll, 13% of Democratic voters support more weapons for Israel. If Kamala loses 13% of Democrats, or even a quarter of that number, this election is over.
The critical part of the first poll is the halt of arms sales to Israel, that is what gives the Democrats a +6 boost.
The third poll (which I think you meant) still shows that twice as many Democrats want to reduce weapons sent compared to those who do. Although, I’m not sure we can reasonably say those 13% of Democrats would no longer vote for Harris if she did change her policy on that. Would that also imply that those 28% of Republicans also switch to Harris? I don’t think that would be true either.
The second poll, which deals with swing states, shows that people are not deciding to not vote Democrat because of the current policy. To the extent that a change in policy would make ~35% of those swing state voters would be more likely to vote for the Dems compared to the ~5% that would be less likely.
The 4th poll shows a 5% increase from a chance in policy, similar to the first.
The 5th shows how Biden’s handling of the war, the calls of a ‘ceasefire’ that never materializes while the US continues to send more and more weapons, is one of his most unpopular positions.