agree. the regular people are always the ones that will end up suffering. lockheed martin shareholders got to enjoy a 30% spike in their holdings after feb 2022. hundreds of thousands of ukrainians lost family members, had to flee their homes, lost limbs, many died/will die, etc

i view geopolitics almost like i do tectonic plates. every once in a while when there are shifts, earthquakes happen. I think the Ukraine war is the small earthquake that always happens right before the big one.

to make more WW2 analogies

spanish civil war & italian invasion of ethiopia ₌ ukraine proxy war & israel/gaza/lebanon/iran situation

rise of fascists across europe ₌ rise of the new pseudo-fascists in US & Europe & really all over the world (look at Argentina, India, etc)

we’ve been pumping money into regime change in Ukraine since the early 90s. NED (National Endowment for Democracy) used to show the dollar figures and specific organizations on their website but deleted that information a while back. You can still find it with Wayback Machine

Essentially we’ve been funding and supporting organizations in Ukraine under the guise of “pro-Democracy™” “pro-Liberty™” with the goal of supporting any potential chances for regime change. Some of those organizations just happen to be associated with the far-right groups that were part of the initial government that was unconstitutionally appointed In 2014 after Euromaidan- a series of violent protests that forced the pro-Russian president to flee the country.

tldr: we’ve been destabilizing Ukraine for a long time. the idea was to peel off Ukraine from Russia’s orbit and throw it into the US orbit. And it worked. Which is why Russia invaded in 2014

Note before I get the inevitable Russian shill comments - I’m not justifying any aggressive invasion by Russia. I’m saying this is a proxy war - a game of tug of war between two larger powers. Neither care in the slightest about what actually happens to the Ukrainians.

They will not recover from this war for a hundred years. But Lockheed Martin stock will perform nicely

edit: and remember this comment in 15 years. people will be talking as if what I’m saying is obvious. but right now the propaganda is strong- just like in 2003 with invasion of Iraq

At the time when we launched the aggressive and illegal invasion of a sovereign county, we were doing it for Democracy™ and Human Rights™

At the time, you would have been called a traitor, shill, or insane to suggest otherwise.

After some years, it becomes absolutely clear none of it was true. It was all for imperialist motives. It seems that the propaganda is strong, but it has a short half life. Today you’ll have trouble finding someone defending the US invasion of Iraq.

I think we are seeing the same thing with Ukraine war. In 10, 15 years people will see the war for what it is- a progressive destabilization of Eastern Europe and intentional proxy war.

But right now- it’s Sovereignty™, International Law™, and Democracy™

We destroyed Iraq. We doomed millions of people for generations. And we are participating right now in the destruction of another country.

It’s just that we do. We destroy.

primary thing $$$

it’s what will ultimately make or break the strike. people start getting desperate when they are behind on their rent

i feel like only people with too much free time get bored

Israel & the US are more or less one and the same. if i remember correctly, 98% of representatives in congress last election cycle was endorsed by the AIPAC

there’s a reason we can only vote for pro-Israeli politicians. Israel projects US power in the mideast

not saying they don’t do all of that. read the reuters article i linked before. or this one: https://carnegieendowment.org/research/2024/03/why-russia-has-been-so-resilient-to-western-export-controls?lang=en

russia does not need israel. they have complex and sophisticated systems that these days use China a lot but they don’t even need China. it’s sometimes impossible to tell whether you’re selling your microwaves to a russian company or not. it’ll look like a legit company, and then it gets somehow routed to russia and they use the microchips or whatever.

all i’m saying is

a) it doesn’t need Israel’s help for this.

b) israel doesn’t have the industrial capacity (small country, gdp only $500B) the geopolitical position for it (they are a tool of US interests and would not meaningfully harm US interests) and the domestic will for it (again, russia is friends with Iran, Israel’s mortal enemy)

there absolutely are parts of the government that will support Russia. Almost half of Israelis speak Russian and have connections to that area. So yeah, of course. But from a top-down directive it’s doubtful

notice i’m not denying Israel does not supply extremists. i’m specifically referring to this russia-israel dynamic

yes, israel supports extremists. they have a very advanced intelligence system and do all sorts of crazy shit. they’re wild. i agree

if you look at my history it isn’t particularly pro-israeli

it’s just that in this specific context, I don’t think it’s as significant as it may seem on first reading. Israel has had a long relationship of cooperation with Russia. Although lately things have gotten more tense between the two, with Iran and Russia becoming closer. Iran is Israel’s mortal enemy and Russia supplying money and tech transfer over in exchange for Shaheeds is a big no-no for them

so while yes, there probably are pro-Russian elements in the Israeli state that have probably helped Russia circumvent sanctions and export controls… the brunt of their materials probably comes from China, from European sources, and maybe even American companies themselves.

russia doesn’t need Israeli help to get access to American parts

All the way back in the Cold War the Soviets had a governmental department specifically to source parts from the West that was blocked off to sanctions. They have decades of experience creating shell companies, intermediaries, etc.

if someone wants to do more research the parent organization was “First Main Directorate of the Committee for State Security under the USSR council of ministers” and the department was called “Directorate T: Scientific and Technical Intelligence” sometimes referred to as just “Line X”

so basically the Russians have had many decades of experience circumventing sanctions and export controls. The Russians, while a shell of the former USSR, still have a lot of the human capital and base of experience in this regard.

I remember reading an article on Reuters or Washington Post or something where apparently even after sanctions, the Russians are getting roughly 90% of the high-tech components they were getting before the war. So the sanctions have hurt, but by a marginal amount. I think it’s this article: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/western-industrial-components-rebuilding-russias-military-2024-08-16/ but Reuters is now paywalled for me

i’m not ready to say we’ll kill them yet. for example we stuck Japanese in camps but didn’t kill them. sure, we took all their property and whatnot.

but you’re right that it’s concerning because remember the Nazis originally did not mean to kill the Jews. Initially they meant to deport them out of the country.

They created the Central Office for Jewish Emigration in the early 1930s which was meant to facilitate the process of Jews leaving the country voluntarily (at least at first) and also by force. Sort of like our modern ICE

One big idea before the decision to exterminate was to send them all to Madagascar. They seriously explored this idea in the late 1930s but realized it was logistically impractical to transport such a large number of people.

Some enterprising Jews managed to float the idea of returning Jews to British Palestine - and they collaborated with the Nazis to get 60k Jews out of Germany https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Haavara_Agreement

But eventually they realized, around 1941, that the easiest way to deal with the Jewish Question would just be to industrially exterminate the Jews

this entire process lasted about a decade give or take a couple years.

my main concern is this: let’s say they start this process. they make the camps, they put hundreds of thousands in said camps. but then they realize they don’t have the money, will, or logistical capacity to actually continue through with it

what happens then? that’s the key question. in the beginning, exterminating is out of the question. it sounds absurd.

but over time, as the situation gets normalized, the overton window shifts. then you mix in economic crisis and war… the idea of extermination starts to look less and less absurd

https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/cbsnews_20240609_1.pdf

That’s a link to a CBS / YouGov poll taken in June of this year.

If you scroll down to question number 62, you’ll see this

62. Would you favor or oppose the U.S. government starting a new national program to deport all undocumented immigrants currently living in the U.S. illegally

Favor . . . . . . . . 62% Oppose . . . . . . . . 38%

That’s a national poll taken of all registered voters, so not just Republicans.

Majority of the people in this country support mass deportation of all illegal immigrants. Majority of the people in this country support a policy that would

• require dozens of camps near all urban areas to house tens of thousands if not hundreds of thousands of people
• require the federal government to dramatically increase the size of ICE, having to hire tens of thousands of additional officers
• that beefed up federal agency would have to search through all urban areas and stop individuals to inspect their paperwork
• those individuals who are caught will have to spend many months if not years in a concentration camp detention center

Consider this. There are anywhere between 10~15 million illegals in this country. Let’s call it 12,500,000. How many seats does an Airbus A321 hold? (fairly standard and common passenger aircraft) About ~200 give or take 30 or so.

So, how many back and forth flights would you need to send 12.5M people back to their country of origin at 200 people per flight?

That’s 62,500 flights. The largest passenger airline in the US, American Airlines, has a fleet size of 970. Let’s call it 1,000 (you can find this on their wiki page)

It would then take all of American Airlines roughly 60 days to move all illegals out of this country, assuming 100% capacity on each and every single flight.

So in a best case scenario, assuming the US federal government was somehow able to emulate the total logistical capacity of the largest passenger airline, it would take 2 months to move all of these people.

Now consider this is the federal government that could not even properly create a floating pier in Gaza: https://www.npr.org/2024/07/30/nx-s1-5050708/what-went-wrong-with-the-u-s-built-floating-pier-designed-to-get-aid-into-gaza

Just some numbers as food for thought. Majority of Americans support placing and keeping millions of people in camps for years.

Living through this, it doesn’t surprise me at all how most Germans did not care about what happened to the Jews

the last 80 years has been the slow elimination and annexation of palestine

it really doesn’t matter which pro-Israeli US presidential candidate serves for the next 4

why are y’all scared of taking responsibility for allowing a Nazi to gain power when you decided to not vote

I voted for Kamala but I still blame the DNC

the issue is two fold

a) they played games with democracy, further accelerating the erosion of whatever little faith remains in our democracy institutions. there should have been a primary, not the underhanded switcharoo we got to witness where for the first time in US history since primaries were a thing… we had a presidential candidate nominated without a single vote

b) while voters are struggling and going through a period of profound insecurity - not only financially but in a very real social sense - they offer more of the same. neoliberal status quo. people are desperate for change and the DNC offers them nothing.

you blame the voters but you do not want to put an ounce of blame on the party that would rather lose an election than offer meaningful change

i grew up an illegal immigrant in the US. we were poor and struggled but ultimately I had a good upbringing and I have a good life now.

the world is uncaring and unjust. you have to stick up for yourself and build something for you and the ones you love. nobody else will do it for you.

unless you are a silver spoon trust fund baby of course (which isn’t exclusive to any race or gender… although being straight & white definitely increases the chances). most of us don’t get that privilege

my dad always taught me not to let the workings of the world affect my personal mood

even if the world is going to shit, you can carve out a little slice of life for yourself and the people you love. take care of those people, take care of what you own, do the things you’re passionate about and let God worry about the rest

and I say that as an atheist. it’s a metaphor

yeah exactly. when the system is about to blow up, they turn a valve and release a little steam

that’s one of two paths we are headed towards today. the pressure is building up. we either need to turn the valve soon OR we’re gonna blow up

i have a feeling though we’re headed for the explosion route

i dont want to sound like a moral relativist and i’m hesitant to respond because i also don’t want to be a hitler apologist

but I think it’s really hard to categorize a person into a “totally bad” position. for example, Hitler had a big ego but he probably genuinely wanted the best for Germany. He cared for animals, was a vegetarian (for the most part, especially in later years of life) and advocated for animal cruelty laws.

if he genuinely believed that eliminating the jews was necessary in order to secure the autonomy of the German people, does that make him a bad person? To a Nazi, the Jew is an evil parasite on society that needs to be eliminated for the good of the entire population.

now please understand I’m speaking from their perspective not saying it is correct

but this type of anti-semitic ideology did not spring up spontaneously in the 1930s but was something deep that developed over the course of hundreds of years and ultimately culminated in the genocide we saw

but if for example, we took everyone in this thread and raised them in 1890s Germany- how many of them would believe in tolerance and racial equality? I’d honestly be surprised if there was a single person

I don’t know. I understand there are good things and bad things. but the difference between good and bad people is more complicated. bad people i typically relegate to those individuals that get pleasure of out cruelty or suffering

i think most legislation is explicitly for the capitalist class. that much we probably agree with

but i do think every once in a while, when there is a ton of pressure and the elites are scared, they throw a bone to the working class.

it happened with the antitrust act, it happened with the New Deal, and it happened in the 1960s with the Civil Rights era and the end to Vietnam

yes, capitalism will eat itself. it’s what we’re essentially seeing right now in slow motion. but there is something there in democracy beyond just capitalism. even if it’s buried deep down and impotent

it’s an eternal battle. every once in a while we pass legislation to try and reign in corporate power. like for example the anti trust act in the early 1900s

the issue is that public attention is temporary. eventually we move on to the next crisis and people forget. grow complacent.

corporate interest, however, is eternal. it’s persistent and never gives up. it keeps pushing, infallibly, in order to weaken the structures meant to reign in their power. whether by legislation/policy (AT&T and friends unilaterally killing Net Neutrality some years back, Disney signing into law expansion of copyright, etc) or through more subtle methods (buying politicians and getting people into positions of power that have no intention of enforcing the laws)

this is inevitably what happens with every democracy. eventually the vigilance fails and the structures of power are hijacked by opportunists.

although having said all that, I don’t think greed had much to do with the inflation we saw. Sure, some companies took advantage and raised prices more than they needed to just to inflate that extra juicy profit margin.

but realistically we’re headed to war and war means massive government spending which means inflation

And it wasn’t. The supply chain breakdown would have happened no matter who was in office

if i remember correctly, COVID brought our inflation up to roughly 6%. then the Ukrainian war took it the rest of way where it peaked near 9% (over 10% in my home state)

these things would have happened anyway, although choosing to prolong the Ukrainian war as long as possible most definitely increased inflation. people think we only gave 2 or 3 hundred billion, but realistically the American public has paid more than a trillion in the invisible tax that is inflation. hundreds of thousands of layoffs because of higher interest rates are also connected to this