Obviously less, to the extent that anyone can predict geopolitical events that far in the future. I think the only counter-argument is the idea that an Israel that isn’t receiving massive amounts of US aid will be invaded, but I don’t find that argument convincing. It’s an open secret that Israel has nuclear weapons, and even if the US stops arming Israel tomorrow I don’t think Iran or their proxies are dumb enough to think that the US won’t come rushing right back in if Israel is invaded.
The counter-argument to your point is that now is the best time, as voters have the leverage to elect democrats or not. In theory, Dem leadership wants to be elected and requires votes to achieve that goal. Biden met with progressive activists shortly after taking office and promptly told them to fuck off as, since he was already president, they no longer had anything to offer him.
That said, I hear your point and am torn about how I will ultimately vote. I don’t live in one of the nine (arguably three) magic states where my vote will actually count, though, so it’s a bit of a moot point.