Dude’s subtle as a heart attack, but it isn’t exactly news that market downturns pair well with incumbents losing their jobs.

I’m sure he’s also hoping and praying for a big hurricane, a new wave of police-protests, another big supply shock to grocery stories, and maybe a pandemic or two to round things out. But when he’s got substantially less control over that shit now than he did four years ago, its a moot point.

Biden will keep the bubble economy inflated until after November. The police have been comically overstuffed to discourage any kind of public protests. We’re simply not going to cover the COVID spike, so you can all just fuck off and die in obscurity. And if he does half as well as Obama did after Hurricane Sandy, a big storm will do him more good than harm. Particularly if it fucks over Texas or Florida, forcing those governors to come to him hat-in-hand like Christie did back in '14.

What Trump really needs to bank on is that the GOP establishment in the swing red states back him like Jeb backed George in '00. And that’s going to be a harder sell in '24, simply because so many of those same governors are going to be resentful of him in the wake of the primaries.