While I agree with the broad strokes of what you’re saying, we do have enough intelligence penetration into the Russian military to predict an invasion even their own soldiers did not know about. We could potentially find out where their listening stations are. One would have to be very nearby.
Also, we have multiple subs. Revealing one temporarily does not compromise our deterrence. Nor is this move without any value, I think it’s important that we occasionally sabre-rattle back at them. It seems to be a language they understand.
All that said, I doubt nuclear WW3 is around the corner with MAD still being the case. I doubt non-nuclear WW3 is around the corner unless China joins Russia in a military alliance. What I do think is within the next few years is chipping away at the Russian economy and morale of the populace until they sue for peace in Ukraine.
Also, we have multiple subs. Revealing one temporarily does not compromise our deterrence
I think what the person you’re replying to meant was something like:
“These subs are known to exist by Russia, and their particular sound signatures may NOT be known to Russia. So, having one appear in a known location, Russia may now be able to link sounds previously unknown to them to this type of sound. With this new information, Russia may now be able to locate these types of subs, when that was previously not possible.”
I’m not sure if they’re right about this or not, so the issue may be moot if Russia already had this information. I do, based on my military experience, generally tend to agree about the OPSEC component of their statement though.
While I agree with the broad strokes of what you’re saying, we do have enough intelligence penetration into the Russian military to predict an invasion even their own soldiers did not know about. We could potentially find out where their listening stations are. One would have to be very nearby.
Also, we have multiple subs. Revealing one temporarily does not compromise our deterrence. Nor is this move without any value, I think it’s important that we occasionally sabre-rattle back at them. It seems to be a language they understand.
All that said, I doubt nuclear WW3 is around the corner with MAD still being the case. I doubt non-nuclear WW3 is around the corner unless China joins Russia in a military alliance. What I do think is within the next few years is chipping away at the Russian economy and morale of the populace until they sue for peace in Ukraine.
I think what the person you’re replying to meant was something like:
“These subs are known to exist by Russia, and their particular sound signatures may NOT be known to Russia. So, having one appear in a known location, Russia may now be able to link sounds previously unknown to them to this type of sound. With this new information, Russia may now be able to locate these types of subs, when that was previously not possible.”
I’m not sure if they’re right about this or not, so the issue may be moot if Russia already had this information. I do, based on my military experience, generally tend to agree about the OPSEC component of their statement though.