I don’t remember him predicting that she would win. His model (https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/) gave her a 71% chance of winning. 71% is a long way from 100%, and the result of that election definitely fit within the model.
That said, you are absolutely correct… we need to keep shining a light on the realities of each of these candidates, because in the light of day Biden is a much better choice than Trump.
I agree… I was simply clarifying that Nate Silver did NOT predict that Hillary would win (nor is he predicting that Trump will win this election), which is a common misunderstanding about probability. For these types of models to be meaningful to the public, there needs to be literacy on what is meant by the percentages given. Really, I’m just reinforcing rodneylives’ point from another angle!
I don’t remember him predicting that she would win. His model (https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/) gave her a 71% chance of winning. 71% is a long way from 100%, and the result of that election definitely fit within the model.
That said, you are absolutely correct… we need to keep shining a light on the realities of each of these candidates, because in the light of day Biden is a much better choice than Trump.
Which would make it a more extreme position than his position in this election, so the point stands.
I agree… I was simply clarifying that Nate Silver did NOT predict that Hillary would win (nor is he predicting that Trump will win this election), which is a common misunderstanding about probability. For these types of models to be meaningful to the public, there needs to be literacy on what is meant by the percentages given. Really, I’m just reinforcing rodneylives’ point from another angle!