The third and final release of YouGov's model shows Republicans taking the Senate by a narrow margin, and Democrats gaining control of the House by an even smaller margin.
Osborn will be a weird case. He’s pledged as an independant to “not caucus with either side”, but that’s not the way the Senate works. He will have to organize with one side or another, to get committee assignments. Everyone assumes he will organize with Democrats because Democrats did not run a candidate against him, but we’re not really gonna know if/until we get there.
If Democrats pick up a other seat to get to 51/49 and win the Presidency, it won’t matter so much. Osborn can maintain his independence and still probably get thrown a few good assignments by Schumer. But if his decision (or lack of one) will make a difference, we should expect both sides to actively negotiate with him for his vote to organize the chamber.
Osborn will be a weird case. He’s pledged as an independant to “not caucus with either side”, but that’s not the way the Senate works. He will have to organize with one side or another, to get committee assignments. Everyone assumes he will organize with Democrats because Democrats did not run a candidate against him, but we’re not really gonna know if/until we get there.
If Democrats pick up a other seat to get to 51/49 and win the Presidency, it won’t matter so much. Osborn can maintain his independence and still probably get thrown a few good assignments by Schumer. But if his decision (or lack of one) will make a difference, we should expect both sides to actively negotiate with him for his vote to organize the chamber.