As this recently updated article discusses, while extremely unlikely, given the way this timeline is going it’s possible the electoral college ends in a tie. Nate Silver projects this as a .3% possibility.
Things to think about:
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Only about half of the states require their electors to vote for the person that won their state. Who are the electors? Generally no one you know.
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If there’s a tie, the House elects a president and the Senate elects a VP. Sub-consideration: it is the composition of the House and Senate after the November election that makes those determinations.
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This would all technically be decided on January 6th. And you remember how that went last time.
Regardless, it’s highly unlikely this will happen. Still, this would be utter and complete madness. There is literally a non-zero chance we have a Trump/Harris administration. 🤣
You never know until you try. I mean look at Republicans — they’ve been beating the anti-abortion drum since Phyllis Schlafly. And now abortion has been made illegal. Maybe the dems should at least start talking about it rather than just accepting defeat.
An amendment starts with 290 votes in the House, a body who can’t even get a simple 218 vote majority to decide who their own leader is. 290 is out of reach.
If, by some miracle, they get that, then it needs 67 votes in the Senate, a body blocked by a 60 vote filibuster requirement.
Assuming they somehow get both of those, it then goes to the states for ratification.
You need 38 states, and since the losers of the popular vote have all been Republicans, that means getting all 25 Biden states from 2020 + 13 Trump states.
Even then, the base of 25 states isn’t guaranteed as only 19 of them have Democratic state houses. So now you may need as many as 19 Trump states?
So, yeah, an Amendment is not in the cards. Flip it around, let’s say the Republicans want an amendmement to ban abortion nationwide… not going to happen.