Kamala Harris will campaign in the Lone Star State, not because she expects to win Texas, but because she wants to shine a light on Texas’ abortion ban.
Tx has been moving towards flipping blue.
Clinton lost by ~800,000 votes (5% of registered voters) and Biden lost by ~640,000 votes (~3.5% of registered voters). This year, TX is breaking records for early voting turnout, and, historically speaking, Democrats win with high turnout. In just 4 days, TX has cast almost 1/4 as many votes as the entire 2020 election and that’s during the first week of early voting when the polls are only required to be open 9 hours a day. We still haven’t seen the turnout for this weekend or next week, when polls are open at least 12 hours a day.
Democrats win with high turnout.
Lupe Valdez’s 3.5M votes in 2018 was about the same number of votes Beto received in 2022. The shrinking gulf is largely coming from a sag in Republican turnout year-over-year. And GOP favorables aren’t so bad that the party doesn’t consistently beat Democrats in high turnout races.
Maybe this year will be a game changer, but Dems would have to beat a 5-7 pt pad for Trump and at least a 4 pt pad for Cruz. Not holding my breath.
Because she’s not a coward, like the republican nominee.
More because Houston is one of the most lucrative fundraising locations in the country for Democrats. Same reason Trump will periodically schlep down to California or out to New York for rallies.
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Texas would be blue if it wasnt gerrymandered to hell. I think California is the same, would be red if it wasn’t for gerrymandering.
Note: Gerrymandering doesn’t impact state wide races like senate and presidential. Only district based things like house seats
California is far more blue than texas is red. California votes around D+20 statewide, Texas is more like R+5 ish
Note- yes it does.
If you feel your vote for local offices doesn’t count (and indeed a lot of races are uncontested) then you’re less likely to vote at all.
So technically you’re right but in practice I would argue gerrymandering has a huge impact on statewide offices.
Texas is more like R+5 ish
That really depends on what office and presidential vs non-presidential election years.
California voted for Biden almost 2 to 1 in 2020, a margin of over 5 million votes. There is no amount of gerrymandering (or un-gerrymandering) that would make California red.
Texas, on the other hand, went for Trump by 600,000 votes (out of 11 million). Solid blue is definitely not in the realm of possibility, but it could swing blue by a small margin.
I mean… California has had quite a few Republican governors before, mostly moderate. But this current Republican party is not the Republican party. I don’t know what this is. It’s chaos. It’s stupid.
The current Republican party is just a party that has been taken over by the monster they curated for decades. The party of Reagan and the Bushes was mostly run by business interests. But to have a chance of winning, they pandered heavily to the religious zealots and the conspiracy nuts. For decades, the businessmen told the crazies that various nebulous evil forces were out to take everything they loved away from them. They used racial resentment, anti-LGBT bigotry, hatred of immigrants, etc. to pander to the crazies. The businessmen promised the crazies that they would punish the evildoers and keep the crazies safe. Well, eventually, the crazies came to realize that the businessmen never really seemed to live up to their promises. They never engaged in the mass brutal expulsion of those filthy immigrants. They never criminalized the queers and locked them in jail. They never actually banned abortion. The businessmen cultured, encouraged, and fed the insanity of the crazies, but they only ever wanted to just string them along. Doing all of the things the crazies wanted was bad for business after all.
Well, eventually the crazies got tired of waiting, and they took over the party. That is what Trumpism is. It’s the monster the Republican leaders have been feeding for decades finally breaking loose and taking over the whole party. For decades, Republican leaders have been running on the same kind of hatred that fascist parties use, but without any intention of actually going full fascist themselves. But if you stoke up enough fascist hatred, if you make that kind of bile acceptable in the body politic…Eventually an actual fascist will come along to give the crazies what they want.
Like it or not, the Republican party of today IS the party of the past few decades. It is simply the party actually embracing its core message and carrying it to its logical conclusions.
The current republican party is just the nazi party with a GOP flag.
Gerrymandering wouldn’t change the outcome of a federal/presidential election. It’s a popular vote at the state level.
Their congressional races would be different.
That’s true, but the claim that California would be red without gerrymandering doesn’t hold up. They have 52 reps, 40-12 currently. If they were evenly apportioned based on the popular vote in 2020 it would be around 35-17. Definitely a difference, but not a massive one.
oh her campaign is so smart and making all the right decisions, she’s going to win for sure
