I wouldn’t rely on them for predictions, but I do think they can be a reasonable proxy for people’s beliefs and/or assumptions. And I would say they at least loosely track the truth…
NBA betting is not perfectly predictive, but there’s a reason the Celtics are at the top and the Pistons are at the bottom.
The current betting odds aggregations have trump at 58%, harris at 41%
https://www.realclearpolling.com/betting-odds/2024/president
Well that’s disheartening. Can’t believe that many people prefer a racist con man to a competent woman.
Betting markets don’t really have any predictive value. It’s all vibes.
I wouldn’t rely on them for predictions, but I do think they can be a reasonable proxy for people’s beliefs and/or assumptions. And I would say they at least loosely track the truth…
NBA betting is not perfectly predictive, but there’s a reason the Celtics are at the top and the Pistons are at the bottom.
This page has some background, but historically they’ve always beat polling and any other prediction algorithms as long as they’ve been around.
A 34 time convicted felon child rapist pussy grabber racist con man