• givesomefucks@lemmy.worldOP
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    5 months ago

    Everything hinges on Biden

    Not really. The DNC is a private non government organization that can do whatever they want

    They could say they’re putting Taylor Swift on the ballot, and I don’t even think they need their candidates permission.

    They just won’t choose to boot Biden if he doesn’t drop.

    I believe the distinction is important.

    But Im not sure how people downvoting you are so confident in Biden or why they’re so baffled about this whole thing.

    Yeah, at this point I just saved that comment with the logic broken down, and that’s what I’m using when I get asked “BuT wHo?”. Because fuck, I get asked that a lot.

    That account didn’t reply last night, asked the same fucking question less than 12 hours later… And isn’t going to answer now either.

    Because there is literally no logical reason for Biden to be the candidate.

    What I think, is they only care about 100% support to Israel. trump isn’t reliable enough, and if Russia gets pulled in by the 4+1 treaty…

    I don’t know how anyone could think trump would side with Israel over Russia. He’d turn on Israel and Ukraine both in a heartbeat.

    Israel is the only logical reason someone would insist on Biden, they just know if they said it, it would just hurt Biden more. So they can’t give a single valid reason for their insistence in Biden.

    • jwiggler@sh.itjust.works
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      5 months ago

      It does matter if Biden decides to stay in. It makes it far less likely the DNC is able to replace him, because the delegates are already pledged to him, and as far as I understand, in order to replace him they’d need a clear alternative singular candidate to nominate. Plus, they’d need to stop Biden from reviewing and selecting a loyal slate of delegates from each state who will certainly vote for him. It’d be much much more likely if Biden steps down and himself calls for a 5 or 6 week primary. My source, if you want to check it out. There’s a chance I’m misinterpreting but I think that’s the jist of it.

      As for those people rigorously defending Biden, I don’t necessarily think they’re automatically pro-Israel. They’re scared, for sure, as we all are. And they’ve probably bought some of, if not all, the Democratic posturing that Biden is just fine, and other writers’ sentiments that doing something like changing the nominee last-minute will be a disaster because it is unprecedented, and so they double down. Like a superfan in sports who is in complete denial that their team has a glaring weakness and probably won’t make it out of the playoffs. You see it all the time. I won’t ever hold it against those people, because it’s easy to be in that state, especially if you love your team. Plus, if you logic it out with them, sometimes they come around and end up seeing the roster change was actually needed. I don’t think deriding them gives them a chance to see your side.

      • givesomefucks@lemmy.worldOP
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        5 months ago

        and as far as I understand, in order to replace him they’d need a clear alternative singular candidate to nominate.

        What?

        Obviously at the end of the day they’d need to nominate one person as the candidate.

        The DNC can come up with that name themselves, they can do a primary/survey/whatever for voter input or not.

        But yes, eventually they have to name a candidate regardless of if that’s Biden or not.

        Delegates may be pledged, and current rules may say they need to vote for who they’re pledged to.

        But the DNC can just change that rule this afternoon if they wanted to.

        • jwiggler@sh.itjust.works
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          5 months ago

          As in, they’d all have to come to a consensus on one candidate other than Biden, and that’s just not a likely thing to happen without Biden stepping aside voluntarily.

          I just don’t see the DNC changing rules to choose someone besides Biden, even if that is technically possible. I could see them adding rules for what happens to delegates if a presumptive nominee steps aside before the convention. But hey, I’m a regular person who read a single article on DNC rules and listens to NPR Politics Podcast. Those kinds of analyses aren’t going to delve too far into the, “well, what if the DNC changes the rules, holds a mini primary without Biden, etc, etc.” because they either think they aren’t likely, or because it is simply too early to tell which way things will move as of today.

          • givesomefucks@lemmy.worldOP
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            5 months ago

            As in, they’d all have to come to a consensus on one candidate other than Biden, and that’s just not a likely thing to happen without Biden stepping aside voluntarily.

            They don’t to change the rules…

            And they can change it to:

            Everyone at the DNC votes for who they want, most votes is the nominee.

            But you’re talking about what they’re likely to do, but were phrasing it as what they can do.

            I’m talking about what they literally can do.

            They can do a whole hell of a lot. They’re just not taking the threat seriously enough and willing to run Biden because even if he loses, the status quo at the DNC remains the same. All the same people get another 4 years in power of one of the only two major political parties in America.

            • jwiggler@sh.itjust.works
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              5 months ago

              Sure, but I don’t think they have as much power as you’re making out, not because they don’t technically have that power, but because of the consequences of using it. I.e. the moderate establishment democratic party. I think there are political interests in place that prevent what you’re talking about from happening.

              • givesomefucks@lemmy.worldOP
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                5 months ago

                but because of the consequences of using it. I.e. the moderate establishment democratic party

                Bruh…

                Who do you think is the majority power in the DNC if not

                the moderate establishment democratic party

                Like, you’re arguing a group of people won’t do something because the same group of people don’t want it to happen.

                I’m trying to explain that means they could do if they wanted…

                The only difference is you’re acting like it’s two groups of people and not literally the exact same people.