It’s definitely accelerated a bit in the last two years.
Alas, all it takes is for Microsoft to tone down the insanity before it will plateau again. So best hope for now is too increase it as much as possible by welcoming refugees before Windows 12 comes out. Maybe gain another percent or two.
The rise of Linux in this is absolutely driven by SteamOS and the Steam Deck, let’s be honest here. This narrative of people escaping Windows because of W11 changes that pretty much only get reported here is… a bit of wishful thinking.
Yeah wishful thinking but also a bit reassuring that this is then a meaningful if small shift. People are choosing Linux via steam decks or personally, and its been enabled via proton and wine rather than necessarily people fleeing win 11.
I do think win 11 changes contribute to people trying Linux more but I think it is Linux that is keeping people that is what has changed. I don’t see some huge move to Linux though - just its growing faster as it supports gaming well and is increasingly easier to use and maintain (which has been a long trend). But win11 being increasingly anti user can’t be a bad think for Linux long term.
I mean, see above for my estimate of how big that contribution is, discounting the effect of the rather unLinux-y experience of using the Deck.
Proton and Wine support help, although I genuinely would like to see more laptops shipping Linux by default more than I care about the Deck. I recently tried to move a laptop to Linux and the terrible support for custom hardware made it unfeasible. That machine is back on Windows now.
The underreported key to Linux on the Deck is that it’s configured for the hardware out of the box. In a world where modular, standardized desktop computing is not mainstream outside techie circles, Linux’s problem is that most normies on Windows aren’t on a desktop PC with AMD gear, they’re on some slightly but noticeably custom branded laptop still running its default Windows install.
Also people are terrified of the terminal. I think a lot of people who have been using CLI for years underestimate how intimidating it is for people who only use GUI desktops.
I mean, for one with modern installers if you’re at the stage where you’re on the terminal as a basic user you are having to troubleshoot more problems than you should have and the issue isn’t the terminal but the stuff that isn’t working that lead you to need to use it.
But also… Windows has one of those, too. Two, actually. Every other troubleshooting page for Windows online has you open a command line and type some stuff up, when not messing with PowerShell. It’s not that weird.
I find that Linux users and communities have a tendency to overestimate how much of the issue is “the terminal” or “the interface not looking like Windows”. I don’t think it’s that big of a deal if the distro you’re installing works first time out of the box. The problem is when it doesn’t, because terminal or not, that’s a dealbreaker for most people.
I’m thinking about my husband watching me use Mint. I am comfortable with the command line, I use Linux (and Powershell) professionally so I am quick to jump into the terminal to fix something. Everytime I do he complains that he could never do that.
There are still a few things you need to do in the terminal, like setting flatpak permissions - something many users will want to do - that would benefit from a graphical interface. Linux is almost as good as Windows or Mac in this regard but not quite all the way there.
I think Linux reached 0.8% in 2018 iirc.
It’s definitely accelerated a bit in the last two years.
Alas, all it takes is for Microsoft to tone down the insanity before it will plateau again. So best hope for now is too increase it as much as possible by welcoming refugees before Windows 12 comes out. Maybe gain another percent or two.
The rise of Linux in this is absolutely driven by SteamOS and the Steam Deck, let’s be honest here. This narrative of people escaping Windows because of W11 changes that pretty much only get reported here is… a bit of wishful thinking.
Yeah wishful thinking but also a bit reassuring that this is then a meaningful if small shift. People are choosing Linux via steam decks or personally, and its been enabled via proton and wine rather than necessarily people fleeing win 11.
I do think win 11 changes contribute to people trying Linux more but I think it is Linux that is keeping people that is what has changed. I don’t see some huge move to Linux though - just its growing faster as it supports gaming well and is increasingly easier to use and maintain (which has been a long trend). But win11 being increasingly anti user can’t be a bad think for Linux long term.
I mean, see above for my estimate of how big that contribution is, discounting the effect of the rather unLinux-y experience of using the Deck.
Proton and Wine support help, although I genuinely would like to see more laptops shipping Linux by default more than I care about the Deck. I recently tried to move a laptop to Linux and the terrible support for custom hardware made it unfeasible. That machine is back on Windows now.
The underreported key to Linux on the Deck is that it’s configured for the hardware out of the box. In a world where modular, standardized desktop computing is not mainstream outside techie circles, Linux’s problem is that most normies on Windows aren’t on a desktop PC with AMD gear, they’re on some slightly but noticeably custom branded laptop still running its default Windows install.
Also people are terrified of the terminal. I think a lot of people who have been using CLI for years underestimate how intimidating it is for people who only use GUI desktops.
I hear this a lot, and… I’m not so sure.
I mean, for one with modern installers if you’re at the stage where you’re on the terminal as a basic user you are having to troubleshoot more problems than you should have and the issue isn’t the terminal but the stuff that isn’t working that lead you to need to use it.
But also… Windows has one of those, too. Two, actually. Every other troubleshooting page for Windows online has you open a command line and type some stuff up, when not messing with PowerShell. It’s not that weird.
I find that Linux users and communities have a tendency to overestimate how much of the issue is “the terminal” or “the interface not looking like Windows”. I don’t think it’s that big of a deal if the distro you’re installing works first time out of the box. The problem is when it doesn’t, because terminal or not, that’s a dealbreaker for most people.
I’m thinking about my husband watching me use Mint. I am comfortable with the command line, I use Linux (and Powershell) professionally so I am quick to jump into the terminal to fix something. Everytime I do he complains that he could never do that.
There are still a few things you need to do in the terminal, like setting flatpak permissions - something many users will want to do - that would benefit from a graphical interface. Linux is almost as good as Windows or Mac in this regard but not quite all the way there.