The Biden campaign has been running polls and focus groups for weeks, and the message has been clear: a felony conviction is a turn-off and a dealbreaker for some meaningful number of voters
In the moment, sure. We’ll see how much people care about his conviction when its four months in the rear view mirror and “Hunter Biden Newest Dick Picks” bombard the latest media cycle.
But maybe - just maybe - the Dems will see prosecuting high ranking conservative crooks as a boon rather than a hazard as they run into the next election cycle. Maybe someone will have the bright idea to bring federal charges against Ken Paxton or Ron DeSantis or even Elon Musk.
Or maybe not. Maybe we’ll just scratch Trump off as “Uniquely Prosecutable” and never do this again.
Polls don’t predict the future. They are a photo of the time they were taken.
Polls illustrate popular sentiment in the moment and give a picture of changing ideological trends over time. This informs people about likely possible futures and assists in long-term decision making.
Remember that it’s not the popular vote that counts, it’s the electoral college, and current polling gives Trump a 2-in-3 chance of winning the college:
https://www.economist.com/interactive/us-2024-election/prediction-model/president
Democracy, fuck yeah!
Americans desperately need to believe they’re a shining city on a hill, even when we’re all living hip-deep in the muck alongside everyone else.
Polls are for pundits.
Vote in November.
Swings in polls are notable, and there’s reason to believe Trump’s conviction hurt his approval among independents.
Will this last? Idk. Hillary was up by 10-pts in October and crashed to a dead-heat on election day. But it should be worth considering what current events have a positive or negative impact on a candidate’s approval.
What does that information ultimately do for a citizen who is not in the field?
Assuming you’re actively participating in GOTV, its useful to know what talking points engage people and what don’t.
Assuming you’ve got some vested socio-economic interest in the winner of the next presidential race, it might inform personal financial or business decisions.
