Polling paradox: what actually shapes the numbers?
goodauthority.org
Likely voters, past voters, demographics and more – how pollsters weight 2024 election poll data matters a great deal.

An exercise in why you shouldn’t worry too much about polls

  • Ghostalmedia@lemmy.worldEnglish
    16·
    27 days ago

    Yes, but with a reputable pollster, questions and weighting are informed by historical data as much as possible.

    Also, most of the good pollsters, who polled close to Election Day, tend to fall within or meet their margins of error when the final vote comes in. For as much as people like to complain about polls, I recommend that they go look at the big pollsters, and see how close they were right before an election.

    The problem isn’t the polls, it’s that shit has been gerrymandered into a near 50/50 split and a winner is lost within the margin of error.