Polling by right-leaning firms has exploded this cycle. Maybe they want to be accurate—or maybe they’re trying to create a sense of momentum for Donald Trump.
  • givesomefucks@lemmy.worldEnglish
    341·
    1 month ago

    Obviously…

    But any polling aggregator that blindly treats every poll the same isn’t worth listening to.

    I mean, we literally know that Musk’s door knockers are just spoofing gps so they don’t have to go door to door, and are filling out the surveys as saying everyone already voted early for trump.

  • Snailpope@lemmy.world
    8·
    1 month ago

    I’ve been wondering this for a while, wouldn’t you want your candidate to poll poorly so more people who otherwise wouldn’t vote and also prefer your candidate go out and vote? Wouldn’t higher polling numbers cause people to rest assured their candidate will win and then not worry about voting? Obviously polls mean nothing, go out and vote

    • givesomefucks@lemmy.worldEnglish
      71·
      1 month ago

      Human variation…

      You’re assuming everyone thinks like you, but they don’t.

      Some just like to be “winners”.

      They wouldn’t want to vote for trump if he loses, but if they think he’ll win they’ll jump on the bandwagon and vote.

        • givesomefucks@lemmy.worldEnglish
          4·
          1 month ago

          Yeah, there’s fundamental brain differences that allow someone with literally a few minutes of training to predict political leaning like >70% (maybe it was even >80%) of the time from nothing but a brain scan…

          Which might not sound that high, but it’s fucking huge.

          It’s why the things that motivate conservatives (fear of the unknown) isn’t what motivates progressives (empathy and solid plans for the future).

          Republicans know their voters, they give them what they want: a Boogeyman to label as the enemy.

          Dems however keep ignoring their base because “who else will they vote for?” and trying to court Republican voters using strategies that either piss of the base (being pro border wall) or just not be effective on conservative voters (talking about how trump will hurt others).

          If you understand basic sociology/psychology, it’s clearly the wrong path for the Dem party. Unfortunately the DNC only prioritizes how much donations someone can bring in when picking people for DNC leadership positions. And the people who prioritize money, rarely go into either sociology or psychology.

          It legitimately shouldn’t be this hard to beat fucking trump

          The unelected people in charge of the only other option just don’t know what the fuck they’re doing. They just keep appealing to the wealthy to increase their donation amount because it’s literally the only metric people are judged on at the DNC.

          We desperately need to fix things before 2028, but if Kamala wins she appoints the head of the DNC, and if she loses Biden’s pick stays.

          • Snailpope@lemmy.world
            1·
            1 month ago

            Yea,I know very little about phycology and nothing about sociology, so this was very enlightening.

  • TropicalDingdong@lemmy.world
    35·
    1 month ago

    This has already been debunked, but almost all models and polling have Trump as the favorite, and this was an obvious outcome of trends that were apparent in early September. Trump, right now, is winning this election and has been for a solid five weeks and a squishy 6 weeks. You can not like it, and you shouldn’t, but pretending that Harris is winning when she isn’t doesn’t change the fact that she went from trending to winning the majority of swing states, to trending to losing the swing states, too just plain losing them over the course of two months. Not everyone has the liberty to stick their heads in the sand when it comes to bad news, least of all, a blitz political campaign when there is this much on the line.

    It’s just what it is. It seems like a direct consequence of the shift towards focusing on Republican voters and courting neoconservatives: because that largely has been the focus of the campaign. It’s also not clear to me that there is time to even pivot. As fast as the news moves, it really does take almost two weeks for changes in a race to make there way into polling. Frankly, the convention and post convention campaign have been a disaster. There is no good reason to be polling this badly against someone as deeply unpopular and genuinely dangerous to democracy as Donald Trump. But Harris quite literally has pivoted away from the Democratic base to court “Moderate Republicans”, with this insane idea that some how she’ll move enough people away from Trump to win this. With ever “moderate Republican” (as if that’s even a thing) she gains, she loses two anti war Democrats.

    You can’t have bipartisanship with a party that doesn’t consider humans human, and it’s central to the DNCs continuing insistence on being a right wing party, when their voters are significantly further to the left of those determining party policy. Bipartisanship with an anti-abortion party is unacceptable. Bipartisanship with a pro genocide party is unacceptable (or being one, for that matter. Bipartisanship with fascism is unacceptable. Democrats needed to have “done better” in this election cycle in the sense that they needed to take wide open the moral high round on so many issues like abortion, race and gender, freedom of speech, economic well being, health care, and genocide, and they simply chose not to.

    It will be a literal miracle if Kamala actually wins enough swing states with the numbers obviously favoring Trump ( it’s not fake news, we’ve been over this, it’s just that Kamala abandoned the base to court Republicans). It will be two miracles if the campaign can also then navigate the post election court cases, since so much has been left on the table by the campaign, we can expect any wins to be extremely close.

    The only other option I see is to take the advice of Vance and not certify.