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https://www.axios.com/2024/09/25/senate-democrats-florida-rick-scott-mucarsel-powell

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It’s funny you post this because I literally just ran the numbers on the Senate races here:

https://lemmy.world/post/20162109

tl;dr - Unless the Democrats get on the stick they WILL lose their senate majority.

Right now, it’s 50 R and 46 D with the 4 Independents (Sanders, King, Sinema, Manchin) caucusing with the Democrats to give it a 50/50 tie.

Harris, as VP, breaks the tie and gives the Democrats majority power.

BUT -

Manchin, I - WV is not running. His seat will safely go R.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/senate/2024/west-virginia/

51 R - 46 D - 3 I. Democrats are out, Republicans are in

Tester, D, in Montana, is well liked, but for some reason he’s behind in the polling. It looks like the Democrats will lose Montana too.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/senate/2024/montana/

Now we’re looking at 52 R - 45 D - 3 I.

Democrats should take Sinema’s seat in AZ, but that doesn’t change the math as she’s I currently.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/senate/2024/arizona/

So 52 R - 46 D - 2 I.

Ohio is way, way closer than it should be. Really a toss up at this point.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/senate/2024/ohio/

So, at a minimum, in order to maintain a 50/50 tie with a Walz tie breaker majority, the Democrats need to claw back at least 2, maybe 3 seats from the Republicans.

Michael Steel says Florida is possible, polling doesn’t look likely:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/senate/2024/florida/

Of course, everybody BUT Texas wants Cruz out, again, Texas gonna Texas.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/senate/2024/texas/

I’d love for somebody to bounce Hawley out, but that’s unlikely.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/senate/2024/missouri/

The special election in Nebraska of all places could end up being the surprise:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/senate/2024/nebraska/

So here’s a scenario:

Put a bunch of money in Montana to hold Tester’s seat. Put a bunch of money in Ohio to hold Brown’s seat. Give up West Virginia because that’s a lost cause. But flip NE from R to I and hope Osborn caucuses with the Democrats.

50 R - 47 D - 3 I (Sanders, King, Osborn) - 50/50 tie with Walz as the tie breaker.